Patriots vs. Bills: NFL Wild Card betting odds, preview, and pick

For the third time this season, the New England Patriots will square off with the Buffalo Bills when they meet at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night. The AFC East rivals split their season series, with the road team winning in each instance.

Will lightning strike for a third time, or will the Bills send the Pats packing in bitter-cold Buffalo? Here’s our look at this primetime clash, which holds a berth to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS

Bills bound into playoffs

After falling to 7-6 and watching their grip on the AFC East slip away, the Bills rallied to win their final four contests and secure their second straight division title. That includes their 33-21 victory over the Patriots in Week 16 at Gillette Stadium.

Though New England was the only team Buffalo beat in that span with a winning record, it’s important to note that the Bills managed a +60 point differential over their final four opponents (Panthers, Pats, Falcons, Jets). Not only was the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection working well (25 catches for 253 yards and three touchdowns), but running back Devin Singletary rushed for 323 yards and four touchdowns on 76 carries, easily his most productive four-game sample of the campaign.

Feeding Singletary early and often could be the key to victory for the Bills, who square off with the Pats’ 22nd-rated run stoppers (123.7 yards allowed per game).

Patriots’ defense falling apart

When New England reeled off seven straight victories in the middle of the season, their defense was largely to thank, as this unit allowed more than 13 points just once in that span. But the Pats’ stoppers have regressed in a big way over the last month of play.

Bill Belichick’s defense has surrendered 27 or more points in three of its last four outings, going 1-3 in that stretch. Mac Jones has had a solid rookie season, but he’ll be hard-pressed to keep his team in the game if the Pats defense plays like Swiss cheese once more.

Patriots vs. Bills injury report

Patriots and Bills betting trends

• The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games
• The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. AFC East opponents
• The Over is 20-7 in the Patriots’ last 27 games played in January
• The Under is 5-2 in the Bills’ last seven home games

The verdict

Momentum appears to be on the Bills’ side. Though it should be a low-scoring game played in frigid conditions, expect Buffalo to both win and cover.

Score prediction: Bills 23, Patriots 16

NFL pick: Bills -4, Under 43

Patriots vs. Bills pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bills to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.