Patriots vs. Colts: NFL Week 15 betting odds, preview, and pick

Two AFC clubs looking to solidify their respective playoff positions will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night as the New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts.

The Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, as they’ve won seven straight contests. But the Colts are a solid 6-2 over their last eight games, with their only losses coming by one score each to likely playoff teams in the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Let’s dive into this Saturday showcase game and see what the best available bet is.

New England Patriots (9-4) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6), Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFLN

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots will go from playing in the snowglobe that was Highmark Stadium on Dec. 6 to a climate-controlled dome this Saturday. That should mean more activity for quarterback Mac Jones, who was limited to three passes in New England’s most recent victory over the Buffalo Bills.

Jones’ numbers don’t leap off the page, but they’re very strong for a rookie. From Week 10 to Week 12, the Alabama product completed 64 of 81 passes (79%) for 8.8 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and only one interception.

Nevertheless, the Pats are a run-first ballclub, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson splitting duties in the backfield. Harris has at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight starts, while Stevenson is averaging 4.73 yards per carry over his last five contests.

The Colts’ defense is 12th in passing (230.2 yards allowed per game) and 16th in rushing (111.8 yards allowed per game), but this unit has improved lately. In three of their last four games, Indy’s stoppers have allowed 17 points or fewer, including a shutout of the Houston Texans last Sunday.

When the Colts have the ball

Carson Wentz and Michael Pittman Jr. are great assets to have in the passing game, but the Colts will only go as far as Jonathan Taylor can take them.

The NFL’s leading rusher by both yardage (1,348) and touchdowns (16) is also second in carries (241), with only Cincinnati Bengals tailback Joe Mixon toting the rock more often (245 attempts).

Thanks primarily to Taylor, Indy ranks second in rushing yards per game (151.7), and they’ll take on a Pats defense that surrenders 114.5 rushing yards per game – 19th in the NFL. With New England ranking third in passing defense (195.5 yards allowed per game), Taylor is clearly the ticket to a Colts victory.

One word of caution to Indy bettors, however, is red zone execution. The Colts are 22nd in red zone touchdown percentage (57.4%), while the Patriots are second in opponent red zone touchdown percentage (45.7%).

Patriots vs. Colts injury report

Patriots and Colts betting trends

• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week
• The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with winning records
• The Under is 8-2 in the Patriots’ last 10 road games
• The Under is 28-12 in the Colts’ last 40 games played in December

The verdict

These defenses have been quite stingy of late, and both the Pats and Colts prefer to move the ball on the ground. This should add up to an easy Under on Saturday night.

Score prediction: Patriots 21, Colts 20

NFL pick: Under 46

Patriots vs. Colts pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Patriots to cover the spread as road underdogs against the Colts.