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Rams vs. Bengals: The best Joe Mixon rushing prop bets for Super Bowl LVI
We're counting down the days until Super Bowl LVI, and while most of the talk around the Cincinnati Bengals has been focused on the incredible play of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we would be remiss not to shed a bit of light on star running back Joe Mixon.
The Pro Bowler posted career-high numbers for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns during the regular season, and now has his eyes set on SoFi Stadium and a clash with the Los Angeles Rams.
We've examined the odds and have come up with the three best Joe Mixon rushing prop bets for Super Bowl LVI.
Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM
CIN Bengals
Moneyline
+160
Spread
+4.5
Total
O 48.5
LA Rams
Moneyline
-195
Spread
-4.5
Total
U 48.5
Over/Under 61.5 Rushing Yards
Mixon’s rushing yards prop opened at 61.5, and that looks too high. While his average over the last eight games is close enough to this number (58.9 yards), he’s only topped 61 in two of those eight games.
Mixon may have accumulated the third-most yards on the ground of any running back during the regular season, but he was also just one of three players to get more than 260 carries – he had 292 in total!
His efficiency certainly didn't match his workload, and there are issues up front for the Bengals. Mixon averaged 4.1 yards per attempt on the season, which was just the 27th best mark among all running backs. That dropped even more towards the business end of the year, and is down to 3.5 yards per attempt over his last eight games.
Joe Mixon simply can't get enough. Who can blame him? #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/YkR4tI3fsI
— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) January 31, 2022
Not only is Mixon struggling to put up numbers, but he now faces a Rams run defense that has only allowed two running backs to surpass 52 yards over the last nine games.
Leading Running Backs vs. LA Rams
Game | Player | Yards | Yards per Attempt |
---|
NFC Championship | Deebo Samuel | 26 | 3.7 |
Divisional Round | Leonard Fournette | 51 | 3.9 |
Wild Card Round | Chase Edmonds | 28 | 3.5 |
Week 18 | Elijah Mitchell | 85 | 4.0 |
Week 17 | Devonta Freeman | 76 | 5.4 |
Week 16 | Alexander Mattison | 41 | 3.2 |
Week 15 | Deejay Dallas | 41 | 5.1 |
Week 14 | James Conner | 31 | 2.4 |
Week 13 | James Robinson | 24 | 3.0 |
While that group of opponents may not be the strongest list of running backs, the Rams also held Jonathan Taylor to 51 yards on 15 carries earlier this season (3.4 yards per attempt), so their defensive line is legit.
Aaron Donald led the disruption in the NFC Championship game as the Rams completely took away the 49ers' ground game, and Mixon may suffer the same fate in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Over/Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Alongside Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor, Mixon is one of just three running backs who played in at least 16 regular season games and averaged more than 18 carries per game.
Mixon has cleared the 16.5 line in eight of his last 10 games and shouldered 21 carries against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. The entire run game for the Bengals goes through Mixon – there is no change of pace option, no running back by committee, and Burrow rarely takes off. In the postseason, Ja’Marr Chase has had a few runs, but you can count on one hand the number of attempts from Chris Evans or Samaje Perine.
I’m so Humbled and Blessed🙌🏽 I Thank God for being here in this position! Words still can’t describe the feeling about us going to the SUPERBOWL! So happy for my Teammates, This Organization, The fans, & Also The City Of Cincinnati! We Not Done Yet! The Big Trophy Next🏆 #WhoDey pic.twitter.com/ip5b9haitO
— ⚡️Primetime!!!⚡️ (@Joe_MainMixon) February 1, 2022
So, the question really becomes, will the Bengals run the ball 20 times? During the regular season they ranked 19th for number of run plays per game (25.6), while teams ran the ball against the Rams on average 26.1 times per game.
The Bengals have run the ball just 39% of the time during the postseason, but even at that, the Rams gave up 65.8 plays per game during the regular season (fifth highest in the NFL), and that would equate to 25 rushing plays for Cincinnati.
Even accounting for a drop off in number of total plays for the Bengals, we should see Mixon clear this line – even if he isn’t that productive on the night.
Pick: Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
Longest Rush Over/Under 13.5 Yards
The inconsistent run-blocking from the Bengals goes some way to explaining why Mixon has been so inefficient this season, and why we’ve put forward the argument that he could shoulder plenty of work and still not hit the rushing yards line. However, when they do get it right, it opens plenty of gaps for this super talented runner.
Since the Bengals came off the bye week, Mixon has been able to put up a run of 14 yards or more six times in 10 games, including a 23-yard dash against the Chiefs last week.
Joe Mixon's Longest Rushes
Week | Opponent | Longest Run (Yards) |
---|
AFC Championship | Chiefs | 23 |
Divisional Round | Titans | 16 |
Wild Card Round | Raiders | 10 |
Week 17 | Chiefs | 13 |
Week 16 | Ravens | 19 |
Week 15 | Broncos | 12 |
Week 14 | 49ers | 17 |
Week 13 | Chargers | 10 |
Week 12 | Steelers | 32 |
Week 11 | Raiders | 20 |
The issue is that the Rams have allowed a running back to go over 13.5 yards on one rushing play just three times in their last 10 games. Ravens RB Devonta Freeman tore off a 32-yard run against the Rams in Week 17, but that is the anomaly. No other player in the last 10 games has gone over 18 yards.
Longest running back rush against the LA Rams
Week | Running Back | Longest Run (Yards) |
---|
NFC Championship | Elijah Mitchell | 9 |
Divisional Round | Leonard Fournette | 11 |
Wild Card Round | James Conner | 11 |
Week 18 | Deebo Samuel | 16 |
Week 17 | Devonta Freeman | 32 |
Week 16 | Alexander Mattison | 18 |
Week 15 | Rashaad Penny | 10 |
Week 14 | James Conner | 13 |
Week 13 | James Robinson | 13 |
Week 12 | AJ Dillon | 8 |
There’s no doubting Mixon’s ability to put up a huge chunk play, but the Rams have been ruthlessly shutting down their opponents' run game in recent weeks. It’s a tough one given the number of opportunities Mixon will get, but lean towards the Under on what should be a tough matchup for the Bengals star.
Pick: Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards (-112)
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