Saints vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 15 betting odds, preview, and pick

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will renew hostilities at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday night, with the NFC South crown on the line. If the Buccaneers win, they’ll clinch their first division title since 2007.

Let’s dig into this primetime matchup and see where bettors should place their wagers.

New Orleans Saints (6-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

When the Saints have the ball

After scoring 23 combined points in their two prior games, the Saints bounced back with a 30-point performance in a “get-right” victory over the hapless New York Jets. It certainly helped to have Alvin Kamara resume starting duties in the backfield after missing nearly a month due to injury, as he ran 27 times for 120 yards and a touchdown, and added another 25 yards receiving.

Taysom Hill played a clean game under center on the heels of a four-interception performance against the Dallas Cowboys, going 15-for-21 through the air for 175 yards. Hill also contributed to New Orleans’ cause with his legs, rushing 11 times for 73 yards and two touchdowns.

Bettors should expect to Saints to run successfully on Sunday night against a Tampa defense that’s allowed 119.5 rushing yards per game over its last eight tilts. That includes the season-high 173 rushing yards the Bucs surrendered to a modest Buffalo Bills ground attack last week. But if push comes to shove late in this one, it’s difficult to envision Hill hanging with Tom Brady through the air.

When the Bucs have the ball

Brady has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, as the Bucs are tops in the league by yards per game (410.2) this season. Wide receiver Chris Godwin has climbed to second in the NFL in receptions (92) and fourth in yardage (1,054) after putting up consecutive monster weeks.

Tailback Leonard Fournette also has two 100-yard rushing games over the last three weeks, amassing six all-purpose touchdowns in that span. It’s difficult to envision the Saints – 22nd in total defense (339.5 yards allowed per game) – putting up much resistance in this spot.

Saints vs. Buccaneers injury report

Saints and Buccaneers betting trends

• The Saints are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games
• The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Buccaneers
• The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games
• The Buccaneers are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games in December
• The Over is 12-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 15 games vs. NFC South opponents

The verdict

Both offenses should be able to move the football with success, and the weather should cooperate in tropical Tampa Bay. The Bucs are very likely to beat the Saints, but bettors will have to be wary of the backdoor cover. The Over is the best available bet in this one.

Score prediction: Bucs 31, Saints 24

NFL pick: Over 46.5

Saints vs. Buccaneers pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Buccaneers to beat the Saints outright, and the game to go Over the projected total.