Scott Shapiro's AFC Championship Game preview

In the first of two conference championship games Sunday, Mike Vrabel and the Titans travel a little more than five hundred miles west to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. These two AFC squads will face off for the second time this season, after a high-scoring thriller in Nashville on Nov. 10, when both teams struggled to stop the opposing offense's strength. The team that can reverse course Sunday is likely to earn a berth to Super Bowl LIV.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Most of the praise for Tennessee’s success over the last two weeks has gone to running back Derrick Henry. The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner has been nearly impossible to tackle in road victories in New England and Baltimore, and he has compiled 377 yards on 64 carries. However, the Titans defense has been just as responsible for the team’s postseason success.

Defensive coordinator Dean Pees' unit was just average during the regular season, but it has taken its play to a new level in the playoffs. The Titans held Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 13 points in the Wild Card Round, then allowed just one touchdown to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Tennessee’s 28-12 victory in Baltimore. The Titans defense has done a lot right in these two games, but their ability to hold the opposition to field goals and prevent short-yardage fourth down conversions tops the list.

Pees and the Titans defense will face a new challenge Sunday, when they meet their first high-powered aerial attack in the postseason. The Chiefs passing attack averaged more than 281 yards per contest during the regular season, even though Patrick Mahomes missed multiple games with a knee injury. When these teams met in Week 10, a hobbled Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns and big-play wide receiver Tyreek Hill gained 157 yards on 11 catches. It is going to take another top-notch game plan from Pees, as well as a season-best defensive effort from his players to stop Mahomes, Hill, and Travis Kelce. The Kansas City offense comes in full of confidence, after it posted 51 points over the final three quarters of their Divisional Round matchup against the Texans.

The Titans' best chance to stop the Chiefs is to keep the Kansas City offense on the sideline. The obvious way to do that is by running the ball with the league’s leading rusher. The good news for Tennessee is it had a ton of success over the last two weeks against a pair of the league’s better rush defenses, and now the Titans will take on a Kansas City defense that yielded 128.2 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, and had no answers for the Titans rushing attack in their first meeting. There is no reason to believe Henry won't continue on his playoff collision course on Sunday.

The Titans got off to a great start in a hostile environment last week, and another fast start would give them a huge shot to spring yet another upset. However, even if they fall behind, they should be able to hang in this one throughout, if they stick to their offensive game plan, give the Chiefs a heavy dose of Henry, and pick their spots to throw the ball downfield to rookie A.J. Brown.

Tennessee struggled to stop the Chiefs at home in Week 10 and is unlikely to flip that script on the road, but I am confident Vrabel and Pees will devise a game plan that contains Kansas City to an extent. It will be extremely tough to come out of Arrowhead with an outright victory, but they are a confident bunch that should be able to hang in this one throughout.

Pick: Tennessee +7

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