Scully’s NFL Week 13 picks: Cardinals will silence Rams

Three heavy favorites covered in Week 12 — New Orleans (-17), Green Bay (-8) and Miami (-7.5) — but underdogs still managed to post a sterling 10-5 record against the spread.

Week 13 includes five games between divisional foes. Here are my picks.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

The points are attractive with Arizona. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games, but their offensive production remains a constant. The Rams head to the desert with a turnover-prone offense that has struggled to score.

Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray has not handled pressure well during the current skid, but the Cardinals still had a chance to win all three games. They ran 70 plays last week at New England, but conservative decisions by head coach Kliff Kingsbury cost them a chance to win, following a late interception of Cam Newton.

Arizona moves the ball on every team. It ranks second, behind Kansas City, with an average of 403.7 yards per game. The Cardinals forced seven turnovers in their last four home games, and giveaways have become a major weakness for Los Angeles.

The Rams had four turnovers and were outgained by San Francisco in Week 12, when Los Angeles recorded only 308 total yards. Defense carried the Rams to back-to-back wins over Seattle and Tampa Bay, and they have a significant edge over Arizona defensively, but quarterback Jared Goff continues to decline, with 10 turnovers in his last four games.

It’s essentially a playoff game for Arizona. The Cardinals can’t afford to fall to 7-7, and I like their chances to win.

Pick: Cardinals +3

Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers

Buffalo has improved significantly on offense this season, but its well-regarded defense has underperformed. Following a bye week, the Bills defense broke out of its doldrums and held the Chargers to 17 points in Week 12. Look for another strong showing against San Francisco.

The Niners snapped a three-game losing streak in Week 12, but they beat the Rams. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan owns Rams head coach Sean McVay (he has won four straight), and it’s unrealistic to expect much from back-up quarterback Nick Mullens in this spot.

The injury-ravaged 49ers got running back Raheem Mostert back last week, but the offense did not look good. It scored 23 points mostly because Los Angeles kept turning the ball over. Buffalo will focus upon slowing down wide receiver Deebo Samuel (11 catches in Week 12), who must carry a large load because of personnel losses, and I expect another low-scoring output from the Niners.

Buffalo will carry its defensive momentum forward with a comfortable victory over San Francisco.

Pick: Bills -2.5

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati lost its third consecutive game in Week 12 but managed to cover against the Giants, despite an anemic offensive performance. The Bengals won’t be so fortunate against Miami.

The Dolphins were rolling until Week 11, when their five-game win streak was snapped by Denver. The defense got back on track in Week 12, when it held the Jets to three points and 260 total yards. Miami will look to get its offense firing on all cylinders before a key four-game stretch to conclude the season.

With quarterback Joe Burrow sidelined, the Bengals turned to Brandon Allen in Week 12, and he was fortunate to have only two turnovers, as he struggled to get the ball downfield (he completed 17 of his 29 passes for 136 yards). Cincinnati netted only 40 rushing yards, and the Dolphins will focus upon taking away the run.

Miami brings an 8-3 ATS record and covered in its last three home games, and they will win by more than two touchdowns over the lowly Bengals.

Pick: Dolphins -11.5

James Scully's NFL ATS record heading into Week 13: 14-22