Steelers vs. Bills: NFL Week 1 betting odds, preview, and pick

After falling short of victory in their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1993, the Buffalo Bills will look to build on that successful campaign in their 2021 home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who will emerge victorious in this battle of AFC heavyweights? Let’s start finding out.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0), 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

Bills bring back very similar squad

Buffalo is a offense-first club, and this unit suffered no key departures in the offseason.

Quarterback Josh Allen was a dark-horse MVP candidate in 2020 after accumulating 4,544 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Top target Stefon Diggs – who led the NFL in receiving yards last year (1,535) – is back in the fold, along with top-notch slot receiver Cole Beasley, promising sophomore Gabriel Davis, and veteran free agent pickup Emmanuel Sanders.

A pair of decent running backs in Devin Singletary and Zack Moss can keep the Steelers’ stoppers – which may or may not have their top disruptor in T.J. Watt – honest.

On defense, the Bills are a bend-but-don’t-break unit that was tied for 12th in yards allowed per play in 2020. But they can still wreak havoc on opposing offenses, as they were tied for third in takeaways last season with 26.

What does “Big Ben” have left in the tank?

Ben Roethlisberger showed his age at times last year, but the venerable 39-year-old signal caller still compiled 3,803 passing yards and 33 touchdowns over 15 games for Pittsburgh in 2020. His array of wide receivers is enviable; JuJu Smith-Schuster headmans a unit that also boasts Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson.

However, it’s anyone’s guess as to how the Steelers’ revamped offensive line – which contains four new starters – will protect “Big Ben” in Week 1. 

Roethlisberger should have his burden eased by rookie running back Najee Harris, who impressed in training camp and the preseason. Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone against a Bills defense that allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season (21).

Steelers vs. Bills injury report

Steelers and Bills betting trends

• The Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog
• The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1
• The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite
• The Bills are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1
• The Under is 39-13-1 in the Steelers’ last 53 road games
• The Over in 13-6 in the Bills’ last 19 games overall

The verdict

The Bills seem like too big a favorite, even at home, against a respectable Steelers squad that thrives in the underdog role. The point spread is a tough call, but these two offenses are too good not to combine for at least 50 points.

Score prediction: Bills 30, Steelers 23

NFL pick: Over 48.5