Sunday Night Football free pick: Bills at Steelers

The Buffalo Bills are poised to build on their reputation as road warriors in Week 15. They'll head to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Buffalo has flourished on the road

Buffalo is 5-1 in six games as the visiting team in 2019, with a 5-0-1 record against the spread. That includes victories over a pair playoff contenders, the Titans and Cowboys. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been far more efficient outside of Orchard Park this year, with significant increases in his completion percentage (65% on the road compared to 54.8% at home), yards per attempt (7.5 to 6.0) and touchdown-interception ratio (8-3 to 9-5).

But Pittsburgh’s defense, which is ninth in rushing yards allowed per game (101.2), should brace itself for a steady dose of blossoming rookie running back Devin Singletary. The Florida Atlantic product is averaging 83.3 yards per game over his last four contests (5.4 yards per carry).

The Bills need a big day from their defense

Buffalo cannot win this game without a solid effort from its defense. The Bills’ stoppers have carried their team through some tough, low-scoring games this season, and they rank second in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.3) and fourth in yards allowed per play (4.9). They’ll face a Steelers offense that averaged fewer than 20 points per game against the likes of the Bengals (23rd in scoring defense), Browns (15th) and Cardinals (30th) in their last three outings.

Pittsburgh is badly banged up

This Sunday-night affair will be a litmus test for Devlin “Duck” Hodges and the rest of Pittsburgh’s banged-up offense, which could add tight end Vance McDonald (concussion) to the injury list, along with wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder), both of whom have been out since the infamous “helmet swing” game against the Browns on November 14.

Oddsmakers set a very low total for this game, which makes taking the Under unpalatable. Bettors should stick their neck out and roll with the Bills as a slight road underdog.

NFL free play: Bills +1

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