The best Patrick Mahomes props bets for Super Bowl LIV

One of the reasons why the Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year in the U.S. is the plethora of prop bets available. The sheer number of options can be dizzying, especially for new bettors. There are so many potential bets to wager on that it helps to focus on just one scenario or one player to make some real money. Today we'll examine four props revolving around Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards - O/U 299.5 yards

The Chiefs passing game is entering the Super Bowl on fire. In the Divisional Round against the Texans, Mahomes put up 321 passing yards. He followed that up with 294 passing yards against the Titans in the AFC Championship Game. In each game Mahomes threw 23 completions on 35 attempts. The Niners allowed an average of 34 pass attempts in their 2 playoff games and 32 pass attempts in the regular season, so you may see a similar number of attempts here.

However, San Francisco took large leads at the start of each of those two games and only allowed 126 and 296 passing yards. The 49ers only only allowed 300 passing yards twice (against the Saints and Rams). Since Mahomes returned from injury, he only threw for more than 300 yards in three of his nine games. I like the Niners to hold Mahomes under this number.

Pick: Under

Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns - O/U 2.5

At first glance this seems like an easy over, given how dominant the Kansas City offense has looked this postseason. However, let's look at the whole picture. San Francisco has only allowed three or more passing touchdowns once this season (New Orleans). Mahomes only threw three or more touchdowns in a game once in the regular season since he returned from injury. The odds favor the Under for a reason, and you should avoid the trap of taking the Over blindly with the better odds.

Pick: Under

Patrick Mahomes interceptions - O/U 0.5

This is a very simple yes or no wager. Will Mahomes throw an interception? He only threw an interception in five of his 16 games this season. The Niners forced an interception in nine of their 18 games this season, including both playoff games. Russell Wilson only threw five interceptions all season, but one was to the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers only threw four interceptions all season, but the Niners managed to get two on him in the NFC Championship Game. This defense is legit, and my longshot to win MVP is Richard Sherman, so give me the Over.

Pick: Over

Patrick Mahomes rushing yards - O/U 29.5 yards

One of my favorite prop bets in this game is on Mahomes to be an anytime touchdown scorer. That means I believe he will get a rushing or receiving touchdown. He got 53 rushing yards in each of his two playoff games this year. The Niners allowed more than 29 yards rushing to quarterbacks in five of their 10 games, where the opposing quarterback had three or more rushing attempts. Mahomes met this number of attempts in 10 of his 16 games. I like him to reach this number out of necessity, to avoid the San Francisco pass rushers.