2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Golden Knights vs. Stars odds, picks & predictions for Game 3 (Sept. 10)

The Western Conference Final of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs is tied at one game apiece between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars, with a pivotal Game 3 on the schedule for Thursday.

The Stars opened the series with a 1-0 win on Sunday, but the Golden Knights rebounded with a 3-0 victory on Tuesday to get back on even ground.

Here are the bets we fancy tonight.

Goals have been difficult to come by of late for the Vegas Golden Knights. It took until late in Game 7 of the second round before they finally beat Thatcher Demko for the winner after Vancouver’s netminder nearly robbed Vegas of a spot in the conference finals all on his own, stopping 123 of 125 shots faced from Games 5 to 7.

If there were any concerns about this team going cold in the conference finals against Dallas, a three-goal second period outburst should put those on the backburner going into a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.

Vegas is the money line favorite at BetAmerica, with the series lead on the line.

Vegas didn’t carry the play in the first game of this series, allowing Dallas to carry a slight edge territorially in all situations and even in a low-scoring game, the Stars had the better expected goals-for rate of the two teams, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The tables turned in the second game. Vegas had a 57.7% edge in total shot attempts for against the Stars, and held a 62% edge in expected goals-for in all situations. That’s definitely more in line with what they were doing late in their series against the Canucks, and when Vegas is able to dictate the terms of a game, it can be difficult to push back because the Golden Knights use their speed to attack wave after wave.

We can have a debate about momentum all day, but the Stars should have their hands full trying to contain the deepest lineup in the Western Conference, especially given the way the Golden Knights push the pace with speed and a relentlessly physical forecheck.

Vegas should also have the edge in goal if they go with Robin Lehner.

Lehner has posted four shutouts in these playoffs, and hasn’t allowed a goal since the third period of Game 6 against Vancouver. He hasn’t allowed a goal in more than 119 minutes over his last two starts combined.

Expect the Golden Knights to prevail tonight, after finding their footing in this series two days ago.

NHL picks: Golden Knights moneyline (-175) and Golden Knights to win by 1 goal (+215)