Racing Roundtable: The Lexington and Jackie's Warrior

After a weekend that saw the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep series come to an end and a champion sprinter return with a winning performance, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson review that action and look ahead to appearances from three champions this week.

Will the results of the Lexington (G3) have any bearing on the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture?

James Scully: Tawny Port isn't fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, but his improving form has some appeal for underneath slots in vertical exotics. He rallied for fifth when making his stakes debut in February's Risen Star (G2), the deepest Kentucky Derby prep race this year, and the Pioneerof the Nile colt followed with a respectable second to Tiz the Bomb in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Tawny Port continued to show more in the Lexington for Brad Cox, and it wouldn't be unprecedented for a horse of his stature to show up with a career-best effort on the first Saturday in May. In the last decade, Commanding Curve (37-1), Golden Soul (34-1), Lookin at Lee (33-1), and Mr. Big News (46-1) have all outperformed expectations by placing in the Kentucky Derby.

Kellie Reilly: The Lexington doesn't change my idea of the Derby picture, but it is useful as a reinforcing data point. Tawny Port's victory just underscores the depth of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, where he was fifth behind Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon, and clear of Slow Down Andy. And since Tawny Port was coming off a second in the Jeff Ruby, he flattered convincing winner Tiz the Bomb. But I took his Lexington performance as an additional talking point for his Arkansas Derby (G1)-winning stablemate Cyberknife. Although the Arkansas Derby itself lacked strength in depth, Cyberknife has been highly rated by Brad Cox all along. If you see Cyberknife as Cox's top sophomore, the efforts by Tawny Port and Zozos, the runner-up to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby (G2), reflect well on the barn's presumptive leader.

Vance Hanson: Other than solidifying Tawny Port's position among the Derby starting field, not really. The Lexington was a relatively slow prep and won by a horse whose best form thus far has been on the synthetic Tapeta surface. He's not incapable on dirt, as the Lexington showed, but he does have significant ground to make up on the likes of Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon, all of whom beat him pretty soundly in the Risen Star.

Was the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3) a good comeback effort by Jackie's Warrior?

JS: Yes, Jackie's Warrior returned in good order following surgery to remove a bone chip. A four-time graded stakes winner in 2021, the four-year-old colt opened a commanding early advantage before comfortably holding by three-quarters of a length and netting an encouraging 102 Brisnet Speed rating. The reigning sprint champion is back, and Jackie's Warrior will be a major player in future engagements.

KR: The Count Fleet was pretty much what the trainer ordered for a comeback, not from a garden-variety vacation, but from surgery for a knee chip. As a "starting point," and a race that Steve Asmussen himself said that Jackie's Warrior needed, it bodes well for the champion sprinter's four-year-old campaign. He didn't have it handed to him on a silver platter, since speedball Empire of Gold forced him through a swift opening quarter in :21.61 in the slop. Jackie's Warrior put him away readily through a half in :44.51 and drew off, then understandably got tired in deep stretch. While his margin dwindled late, he was always doing enough under top weight of 123 pounds. To me, the most important clue was how easily he rattled off the first five furlongs in :56.63 on the bridle, before lack of fitness told. He has every right to benefit from this tightener.

VH: I was a little underwhelmed by Jackie's Warrior's effort. Granted, he did all the dirty work over a sloppy track and surely wasn't (and didn't have to be) at peak fitness to beat the crew he was facing, but his idling through the stretch and modest margin of victory left a little something to be desired. I simply expected him to be a bit more authoritative, given the level of competition. His next race or two will tell us a lot more about his prospects at successfully defending his championship title.

Which champion are you looking forward to seeing the most this week: Letruska, Ce Ce, or Malathaat?

JS: Letruska, the champion older dirt female will face a solid group of rivals in the $1 million Apple Blossom H. (G1). Before coming up short as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), Letruska dominated divisional foes last season, kicking off a five-race stakes-winning streak with a nose victory over Monomoy Girl in the Apple Blossom, and the six-year-old mare has a tune-up for her title defense, romping in the Feb. 26 Royal Delta (G3) at Gulfstream. But her last race didn't come back fast (94 Brisnet Speed rating) and Letruska will meet a couple of intriguing four-year-old rivals, Clairiere and Maracuja, as well as 2020 Apple Blossom winner Ce Ce.

KR: Malathaat is the most interesting because we arguably haven't seen her best yet. That's not to undersell Letruska and Ce Ce's clash in the Apple Blossom — a highlight for sure, with Clairiere a fascinating challenger — but both older champs are known quantities. Given Malathaat's size and scope, she has the potential to hit new heights as a four-year-old. Friday's Doubledogdare (G3) will be a good test of that hypothesis, as Malathaat kicked off 2021 in the Ashland (G1) over the same 1 1/16-mile trip at Keeneland.

VH: Of the trio, Malathaat is the only who has not yet raced this year. While she is not expected to face competition deemed too serious in Friday's Doubledogdare at Keeneland, it'll be interesting to note how much she's developed from three to four. Given the oddness of the results of the Breeders' Cup Distaff in November, I thought she ran below her potential that day in what should have been a winnable scenario for her. She seemingly has all the tools to make amends for that this season.