Scott Shapiro's Super Bowl LIV preview

After a disappointing set of results in the conference championships and plenty of time for buildup, the Super Bowl is upon us. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will play for the right to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Miami on Sunday night.

Odds to win Super Bowl LIV

Mahomes will be tested on Sunday

The AFC champion Chiefs suffered through injuries during the regular season, including what was originally thought to be a serious knee issue for the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes missed two games and took several more to fully shake it off, but he entered the playoffs healthy and has been unstoppable through the first eight quarters of the Chiefs’ postseason play. In both of their do-or-die contests, the Chiefs fell behind early, but won going away behind the arm and legs of the league’s best quarterback.

In their first two postseason games, the Chiefs took on teams that ranked poorly in pressure rate. That allowed Mahomes to have plenty of time to look for Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the Kansas City playmakers down the field and led to a tremendous amount of production. Completely stopping Kansas City’s high-powered attack is overly ambitious for the 49ers, but containment is more feasible if they can get heat on Mahomes, which I expect them to do.

With a number of positive matchups in the trenches, including a major mismatch between rookie defensive end Nick Bosa and Kansas City left tackle Eric Fisher, the Niners at the very least should be able to get more pressure on the Chiefs quarterback than the Titans and Texans did.  San Francisco was second in the NFL in both pressure rate and sack rate, while Tennessee and Houston both finished toward the back of the pack in both categories. The San Francisco front four can dominate the Chiefs offensive line from start to finish.

Garoppolo has plenty of weapons

Containing the Kansas City offense will be a top priority for the 49ers, but to defeat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, the San Francisco offense is going to also have to score its share of points. This should not be an issue for a team that ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per game (381.1) and second in total points scored (479). The 49ers defense may draw a majority of the headlines, but their offense is far from chopped liver.

In their first two postseason matchups, head coach Kyle Shanahan did not have to lean on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo only attempted 27 passes in the two games. Shanahan instead gave the ball to his running backs, who compiled 471 rushing yards in the two games. Raheem Mostert led the charge, but the 49ers’running-back-by-committee approach, as well as the usage of their receivers in the running game, makes them very tough to stop.

With the expectation that San Francisco’s defense will make life difficult for Mahomes, along with the belief that an improved Kansas City run dense will still struggle to stop Mostert and crew, it is hard to look past the Niners as the better team in this matchup. Ideally, Garoppolo will throw the ball fewer than 25 times, because I do not trust him. However, if he has to drop back more often, he has the weapons and playcaller to help him get the job done.

The Niners will win their first Super Bowl since 1994. 

Super Bowl free pick: San Francisco (+1)