Scully’s NCAAF Week 8 picks: Purdy will lead Iowa State to upset win

It was difficult sledding early in a hectic 2020 college football season, but I’ve turned things around.

My picks are 4-1 against the spread over the last two weeks, and I will keep the momentum rolling in Week 8.

Tennessee vs. Alabama

Alabama enters on a roll, and Tennessee is reeling with atrocious quarterback play. The Tide is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams, and I’m excited to lay the points.

Tennessee stuck with Jarrett Guarantano, after a disastrous second half at Georgia, in which he fumbled twice and threw an interception. He was benched after he threw a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in the first half of a blowout loss to Kentucky. After his backup immediately threw an interception, Tennessee basically ran the ball the rest of the way.

The Vols basically don’t have a passing game. Head coach Jeremy Pruitt will wait until close to game time to announce the starter, and Tennessee could play multiple quarterbacks. That will be a recipe for disaster against Alabama, which held Georgia scoreless in the second half last week.

Heisman Trophy contender Mac Jones has the Tide offense firing on all cylinders, and Alabama will score early and often in a rousing romp over the Vols.

Pick: Alabama -21.5

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State

Iowa State has the edge at quarterback with Brock Purdy. The battle-tested Cyclones can make a push for Big 12 superiority, and they should not be grabbing this many points.

Oklahoma State had its season disrupted again last week, as the Baylor game was postponed, and rust is a legitimate concern, following a three-week layoff. The Cowboys were not sharp in close wins over Tulsa and West Virginia, and Kansas did not present much of a challenge in their last appearance, back in Week 5.

Oklahoma State's offensive line performed below standards against Tulsa and West Virginia. It’s a unit in need of game repetitions, and quarterback Spencer Sanders will see his first action since he was injured in the opener. It’s unrealistic to expect Oklahoma State to show up with its best. The Cowboys remain a dangerous team, but I’ll look for them down the road.

Iowa State wore down Oklahoma in Week 5 and scored a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to secure the upset win. In their last tune-up, Purdy threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns, and Breece Hall rushed for 135 yards and two touchdowns, as the Cyclones recorded a dominant win over Texas Tech.

Iowa State is legit on both sides of the ball, and I like the Cyclones to win outright.

Pick: Iowa St. +3.5

Maryland vs. Northwestern

This is a vulnerable line worth exploiting.

Northwestern is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games as favorites and 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.

Maryland has shown a propensity to start fast, with a 6-1 ATS record in its last seven openers, and the Terrapins will keep progressing in the second year under head coach Mike Locksley.

An excellent recruiter, Locksley has improved the talent in College Park. And while Maryland is expected to play a number of promising newcomers, there will be a level of familiarity for returning players in the second year of the system. Maryland averaged more than 25 points per game last year, and the Terps have the speed to stretch the field.

Northwestern went 3-9 last season. The Wildcats were held to 15 points or fewer in seven games, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is more than comfortable utilizing long, time-consuming drives to win low-scoring games.

A new quarterback, transfer Peyton Ramsey, will take over the low-scoring offense, and Northwestern is laying double digits.

Maryland may win only one game (Rutgers) on its brutal Big Ten schedule, but it will be competitive against Northwestern and cover a ridiculous number.

Pick: Maryland +11

James Scully's 2020 NCAAF record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 8: 8-8