Burnley vs. Watford: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

Basement-dwellers Burnley and Watford square off in a "relegation six pointer" on Saturday with both clubs in desperate need of a win.

Let's examine their match, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Burnley’s first home match in 55 days

Sean Dyche will walk out of the tunnel at Turf Moor on Saturday for the first time since a 0-0 draw with West Ham on Dec. 12. A COVID pause sees Burnley having matches in hand on everyone else in the table, as they have had three of their last six matches postponed due to either illness in their own club or other teams.

Having played last overall in a 0-0 draw with Arsenal on Jan. 23, Burnley will hope the signing of forward Wout Weghorst will help the second-worst attack in the Premier League find some goals. Having put just nine total shots on goal in their last six matches, the towering 6’5” forward from Wolfsburg scored six goals in 18 Bundesliga matches this season, and gives them an option in the air.

Burnley know they must pick up points from this fixture, as their next four will see them face Manchester United on Tuesday, followed by Liverpool, Brighton, and Tottenham. They are four points from safety, with four matches in hand on 16th-place Norwich, and a win on Saturday would move them ahead of Watford. Burnley have failed to win any of their last eight matches, but they have drawn five of those fixtures including against Arsenal and Chelsea.

Maxwel Cornet returns from AFCON and will likely partner Weghorst up top, while Charlie Taylor and Matej Vydra are questionable. Josh Brownhill will miss the match, as he is suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Watford is hoping Hodgson can be their savior

After taking just one point out of their last 24 possible, Claudio Ranieri was sacked during the international break and replaced by 74-year old Roy Hodgson. Their last match saw them lose 3-0 to fellow regulation-battler Norwich, a match where forward Emmanuel Dennis was sent off. This was in addition to a 1-1 draw with Newcastle, as they blew another chance to take points off a fellow basement-dweller.

Their last victory came in a 4-1 shocker over Manchester United on Nov. 20, as their defense continues to leak goals from every angle. Not only have they failed to keep a clean sheet this season, they have failed to do so in their last 30 matches. In fact, their last clean sheet happened in February 2020.

Watford are also dealing with a number of key players missing. In addition to Dennis, they will be without Ismaila Sarr, the star winger who will play in the AFCON final for Senegal. Ben Foster is doubtful with illness as well. They do get three players back from AFCON, as Adam Masina, William Troost-Ekong, and Imran Louza should be on the team sheet.

Burnley and Watford Betting Trends 

• Burnley have won their last three meetings with Watford, the last two coming via clean-sheet wins
• Burnley are 4-1-1 against Watford in the last six matches between the sides
• Burnley have won just one of their last 17 matches at Turf Moor in all competitions, but are unbeaten in their last four at home
• Burnley have lost just once to Watford at home in the last 12 meetings, winning seven and drawing four
• Just once in the last six meetings has the total gone over two and a half goals
• At least two goals have been scored in total in nine of Watford’s last 10 matches, with both teams finding the back of the net in eight of those contests
• Watford have not been involved with a scoreless draw all season, while Burnley leads the league with four such results

Burnley will win in a low-scoring affair

This is the fourth matchup this season between teams residing 19th and 20th in the table, and the bottom-placed team has yet to suffer defeat in those fixtures. I like that trend to continue here. Weghorst will provide a much-needed scoring threat up top against a leaky Watford back line, while their defense will enjoy the absence of Dennis, especially given they have allowed just eight goals at Turf Moor all season.

Take Burnley to win this match in a close affair, moving themselves off the bottom of the table and giving them some life as they look to rescue themselves from the drop.

Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Watford

Premier League PICK: BURNLEY Moneyline (+120)