Euro 2020: Finland vs. Russia betting odds, preview, and pick

Finland and Russia will square off on Wednesday, June 16 in Matchday 2 action, as both jockey for position within Group B at Euro 2020.

Russia are heavy favorites, with the match expected to see two or fewer goals.

Finland suddenly has hope of advancing

The Finnish players can be forgiven if they're feeling guilty about having defeated Denmark on Saturday, following the heart-wrenching event that took place just before halftime. Following a two-hour pause after the collapse of Christian Eriksen, UEFA essentially forced the teams to resume the match, where a mistake by Danish keeper Kasper Schmeichel allowed Finland to claim a 1-0 upset win on their only shot on target of the entire match.

Now they find themselves in a position to potentially advance out of the group stage. For a nation that had never appeared in a major tournament before, this is a dream come true. A win would certainly secure them a spot in the knockouts as a top-two side in their group, but a draw would put them in terrific position to be one of the best third-place teams, at worst.

In five meetings with Russia, Finland have just one victory—which came more than a century ago in their first meeting in 1912. To add a second win, or even a draw, will require them to play much better than they did against Denmark, where they conceded quite a few chances and committed a foul in the box leading to a penalty that their keeper thankfully saved. Striker Teemu Pukki will need to be more of a threat against Russia than he was against Denmark if they hope to steal the victory.

Russia licking wounds following Belgian beatdown

Meanwhile, Belgium showed why they are the top-ranked team in the world as they easily handled Russia with a 3-0 victory on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku opened the scoring inside of 10 minutes, and the Russians never looked like a threat.

To make matters worse, Russia lost Yuri Zhirkov to a first-half calf injury, and saw Daler Kuzyaev leave after a head collision. They also may be without Fyodor Kudryashov, and have now lost Andrei Mostovoy to COVID-19 after a positive test. This leaves them with no natural left-sided players, meaning they will likely need to shift players and possibly formations.

The Russians must improve on their shot total from the matchup with Belgium, where they took only five shots and managed to put just one on target. That shouldn’t be as much of an issue in this match, given how unlikely it is that Finland will come anywhere near the 66.4% possession that the Belgians enjoyed. A draw will still put them in position to qualify with a win over Denmark, but they will want to take advantage of this opportunity to put three points in their pocket.

Finland vs. Russia Trends

The Russians have won the last four matchups with Finland, including a pair of 3-0 victories in their last meetings in 2008 and 2009.

Russia enter the match having been held scoreless for the first time in six outings. They also have won just three matches in their last 12. Meanwhile, Finland had lost three straight prior to the win over Denmark, with no victories in their previous six.

Russia’s last five matches have seen three or more goals three times, with both teams scoring in three as well. Just one of Finland’s last five matches have seen three or more goals.

While Finland will set up for a draw most likely, the Russians see this as a must-win match and they have the superior talent. With the match taking place on home soil in St. Petersburg, it is hard to see Russia failing to pick up the victory. However, they have not kept a clean sheet in the European Championships since 2008, and Pukki will be a threat, so use the TwinSpires Sports Bet Builder to pair a Russian win with both teams scoring for a terrific profit.

For those looking at player props, Aleksandr Golovin is the primary playmaker for Russia and is involved in their most dangerous attacks. You can get him to assist a goal at +225, which represents excellent value.

Euro 2020 picks: Russia ML plus BTTS Yes (+360), and Golovin to assist (+225)

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