FA Cup: Manchester United vs. Liverpool odds, preview, and pick

For the second time in eight days, Manchester United will face off with bitter rival Liverpool on Sunday. This time the two sides square off in the fourth round of the Emirates FA Cup at Old Trafford.

The two teams played to a scoreless draw last weekend, with Liverpool favored at home. This time, the teams provide almost equal odds for victory, with more than two goals expected.

Manchester United expected to rotate

With cross-city rival Manchester City hot on their heels in the Premier League table, Manchester United are expected to rotate the squad as they prioritize the league over the domestic cup. As such, we are likely to see multiple changes from the side that held Liverpool without a goal last weekend at Anfield and defeated Fulham 2-1 on Wednesday.

Victor Lindelof led all players with ten clearances in the match against Liverpool, but a back issue kept him out against Fulham. His role on Sunday is in question.

Keeper David De Gea will likely give way to Dean Henderson at the back, which could see United’s defense be a bit less secure.

Their scoreless draw against Liverpool last weekend saw them nearly score at two different times late in the match, but heroics from Alisson saw them denied all three points. They defeated Watford 1-0 at home in the FA Cup third round thanks to a goal five minutes into the match, but they struggled at times to create chances with a heavily rotated side in attack. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will likely rotate the attack less than that match with a chance to knock Liverpool out of the competition, just as he personally did in 1999.

Will Liverpool finally score a goal?

Jurgen Klopp’s side suffered their first defeat at Anfield in nearly four years when they fell 1-0 to Burnley in the midweek, as they rested quite a few of their main players.

Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino were both rested, although they came in for the final stretch as they chased a goal. Captain Jordan Henderson missed the match with a groin injury, and is not expected to play against United.

Klopp will likely start his main attackers, but the back line and midfield could be a total patchwork, more than the one he’s already had to employ due to the numerous injuries in the back line. With a six-point gap between them and United in the league table, many wonder if Klopp will prioritize the domestic cup over the league, or if he will still hope to make a title challenge and rest his best players.

Over their next six league matches, Liverpool will face five teams currently ranked in the top seven of the table, so Klopp’s lineup decisions will likely show what he thinks of their chances in the league.

The Reds have scored just four goals in five matches to start the calendar year – with all four coming in their third round FA Cup match with an Aston Villa side that did not field a single first-team player due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Liverpool is in shambles at the moment with their best midfield playmakers having to defend and being unable to dictate play, and you wonder how they will be able to break United’s defense down with so many key players missing.

United has seven straight home clean sheets in competition

No team has eliminated Liverpool from the FA Cup more times than Manchester United, who have sent the Reds home from the competition nine different times. In their last six meetings in the competition, the home side has come out ahead every time, with the last meeting at Old Trafford seeing United win 1-0 in 2011. Seven of their last eleven meetings across all competitions have seen the two sides tied after ninety minutes.

In their last seven FA Cup matches at Old Trafford, Manchester United have not conceded a single goal, winning all seven matches. Their last goal conceded at home in the competition came in a 1-1 draw with West Ham in March 2016. Meanwhile, Jurgen Klopp has made it past this point in the FA Cup just once in his time at Liverpool, as they advanced to the fifth round last season before losing 2-0 to Chelsea.

Liverpool are lacking confidence, and their extremely poor run of form makes it hard to bet on them to win this match. While United are going to rotate, they will still have many of their key pieces in attack and midfield and have few injury concerns.

Due to the compacted season and COVID-19 changes, a draw in regulation will see extra time rather than the replay we would normally experience. If United play as defensively as they did last weekend, a draw in regulation is very much a possibility.

That said, I like United to win this match no matter how long it takes, and given Liverpool’s inability to score of late, backing United to win in regulation with less than three goals is amazing value that could land you a huge payout.

Free Pick: Manchester United to qualify (-125), Manchester United win and under 2.5 goals (+525)