The FA Cup gets back underway this weekend with the start of the third round. There’s a feast of knock-out football to enjoy, but arguably the pick of the ties is an all-Premier League clash in London, as West Ham host Leeds United.

West Ham eye another huge home win

West Ham have progressed beyond the FA Cup third round in each of the last four years, and will be confident of doing so again at home to a struggling Leeds United. The Hammers are fifth in the table and well in the mix for a Champions League spot, with just one point separating them and Arsenal in fourth.

David Moyes’ men had a December wobble, as they went 0-4-1 in all competitions during a two-and-a-half-week spell over Christmas, but they have bounced back with an emphatic 4-1 win over Watford and a 3-2 win against Crystal Palace, in which they were up 3-0, until they took their foot off the gas with eight minutes remaining.

Goals have not been hard to come by for West Ham this year, with the Hammers averaging two goals a game at home in the Premier League. They’ve taken some notable scalps at the London Stadium already, with Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Leicester all suffering defeats on the road to West Ham.

They’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 league games, but West Ham fans will be confident their side has enough scoring power to fire them into the fourth round. It’s been 16 years since West Ham made the FA Cup Final in that unforgettable epic with Liverpool, and Moyes’ men are perfectly set up for a good cup run again this year.

Poor cup form inspires little confidence in Leeds      

Leeds United fans will be breathing a little easier in 2022 after a 3-1 win over Burnley in the league gave them an eight-point cushion above the relegation zone. That bit of comfort might help them kick-start a cup run on the side, but their recent FA Cup form does not inspire bettors.

Leeds United have crashed out in the third round in six of the last eight years, and five of those defeats came to lower league opposition. Twelve months ago, Leeds were shocked 3-0 by League Two Crawley, and before that they’d also lost third-round games to Arsenal, QPR, Newport County, Sunderland, and Rochdale in the last eight years.

That cup form is poor enough, before you consider this season’s league form. Against top-seven sides in the league, Leeds’ record this year is 0-7, and they’ve conceded 26 goals (3.7 goals a game) while scoring just six (0.9 a game). That includes a 2-1 defeat on the road to West Ham earlier this season, in a game in which Leeds held a 1-0 lead at half-time, only for the Hammers to mount a comeback, which included a late winner from Michail Antonio.

Marcelo Bielsa doesn’t have a good record in the cup, but a decent run at it will certainly help lift the mood, given Leeds’ torrid season. The coach’s style of play is open, expansive, attacking football, and that won’t change in the knock-out format.   

West Ham and Leeds betting trends

• There have been Over 2.5 goals in six of Leeds’ last eight games
• There have been Over 2.5 goals in West Ham’s last four games
• Both teams have scored in 70% of Leeds’ last 10 games
• Both teams have scored in 70% of West Ham’s last 10 games
• Both teams have scored in six of the last seven games between West Ham and Leeds
• The last time these teams met in the FA Cup was in 1930, and West Ham won 4-1

West Ham to come out on top in a thriller

Goals should be on the menu when these two teams meet, as neither have problems finding the back of the net. Leeds’ style of football means they’re always vulnerable against the top sides, while West Ham have conceded in 16 of their 20 league games this season.

The knock-out format should make for an exciting game, with both sets of fans hoping this is the start of a good run in the cup. Leeds’ recent record throws up all kinds of red flags, and West Ham’s home form this season jumps off the page.

Both teams should score, and there could be plenty of goals, with the Hammers coming out on top.

Score prediction: West Ham 3-2 Leeds (+2000)

West Ham vs. Leeds: Over 3.5 goals (+225)

Same Game Combo: West Ham to win, both teams to score, Over 3.5 goals, and Michail Antonio to score a goal (+750)